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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the award. However, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the biggest surprise.

But this year's competition is distinctly different. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and thrilling year, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still