Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
